Suborbital Space Tourism Fades into Irrelevance
It seemed that this year, the long-promised era of suborbital space tourism had finally arrived. In March, Blue Origin announced that it had completed an investigation into the failure of a New Shepard flight carrying microgravity experiments the previous September. The company promised it would “soon” resume suborbital flights.
On June 29, Virgin Galactic conducted its first commercial suborbital mission. The company then reeled off another four commercial flights on a roughly monthly basis. It was the culmination of a 19-year-long effort that had cost more than $2 billion and the lives of four Scaled Composites employees.
The future looked bright. But, with about six weeks left in the year, that optimism has faded. Virgin Galactic announced last week that it planned to suspend commercial service in mid-2024 after only two or three more flights in order to focus on developing an advanced Delta class fleet of spaceships capable of flying twice per week with six passengers. Commercial service won’t resume until sometime in 2026.
Virgin Galactic can’t make money flying its lone SpaceShipTwo, VSS Unity, on a monthly basis. The company also promised to fly 100 founders first, many of whom pay in full back in the day when tickets cost $200,000 or $250,000. Tickets now cost $450,000, despite years of promises from the company to reduce prices to as low as $50,000.
Meanwhile, super cautious Blue Origin is once again promising to resume flights soon with no details on what that actually means. On its return to flight, New Shepard will carry the same experiments that were aboard the capsule that blasted away from its failing booster 14 months ago. Assuming Blue Origin conducts the launch in the weeks ahead, it’s likely that tourist flights won’t resume until next year.
In 2024, two companies will launch people on suborbital rides on a periodic basis. And then in mid-year, Blue Origin will have the market to itself for anywhere from 18 to 30 months. That’s assuming that Virgin Galactic’s schedule doesn’t slip as it has so often in the past.
Virgin Galactic has flown 15 paying passengers on the five flights thus far. A company employee accompanied them in the passenger cabin for each launch. Next year, the company will fill all four seats, allowing it to fly eight to 12 more people before flights are suspended.
For those of you keeping score at home, Blue Origin has flown 32 people on six suborbital flights. The most recent launch with humans onboard occurred on Aug. 4, 2022.
This is a far cry from what anyone expected during the halcyon days that followed the success of SpaceShipOne in 2004. The following year, Virgin Galactic Founder Richard Branson and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson announced plans for the state to spend $225 million to build a spaceport near the city of Truth or Consequences to serve as the home for SpaceShipTwo. Commercial flights would begin in 2009-10, with 50,000 people flying in the first decade.
Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are very different in one respect. Suborbital flights are only part of Blue Origin’s business; the company has plans to launch orbital rockets and spacecraft. Flying suborbital is Virgin Galactic’s only business. It has to fly.
With the rise of SpaceX and its partially reusable rockets, suborbital spaceflight has become an expensive sideshow for wealthy tourists and researchers with enough money to pay for flights. The technology is limited; the ships can’t reach orbit, nor can they go point to point. Like a rollercoaster, they begin and end at the same place. They are the ultimate thrill ride for those who can afford it.
Twenty-seven years after Peter Diamandis announced the $10 million Ansari X Prize to spur on its development, suborbital flights are neither routine nor remotely affordable. That situation is unlikely to change any time soon.